December 15, 2019

Election: Trump’s to Lose

by Hal Gershowitz

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One recognizes, of course, that eleven months can be an ice-age in American politics and that quite a bit can happen between now and next November. That being said, it looks like President Donald Trump is well on his way to a second term.

A robust economy, such as the one the nation is currently experiencing, would usually provide, under almost all circumstances, strong tailwinds for any president. But President Trump isn’t just any President. Certainly, he’s given many of the silent minority who elected him pause for concern. Many of those voters used to belong to the former silent majority who used to care about big federal deficits and big federal debt, and even big federal tariffs, but, apparently, not anymore.  What an inopportune time for the Democrats to push a not-so-clear case for impeachment on an already stressed-out and politically exhausted electorate.

While President Trump energizes his base with his tweets and taunts on a daily basis, the Democrats have given him an incredible holiday gift as the 2020 election marathon gets underway—the questionable decision to push impeachment. Given the strong economy, it would be hard enough for the Democrats to claw back very many of the thirty-two states that went for Trump in 2016, but the impeachment process has made the task that much harder. Too many voters in those states aren’t convinced that an impeachment, with less than a year to go before the next election, is either warranted or wise. Worse, a majority of voters in several of the states that broke for Trump in 2016 are, as of today, simply flat out against impeachment. Among them are Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and they alone represent 99 precious electoral votes. Add to that the voters in many of the other twenty-six states who went for Trump and who are, at best, pretty evenly split on impeachment, and impeachment becomes a strategic stretch.

To make matters worse, top Democratic presidential candidates will have to detour back to Washington in the midst of their primary campaigns to sit as jurors while the Republican-led Senate puts on a reality show like no other for the country. And what a spectacle it is apt to be. For sure, the Democrats will want to make short shrift of the Senate impeachment process, and, more than likely, the President just might want to drag it out as long as he can. One wonders who the President’s attorneys, in their defense of the President, will call as witnesses before the 100 senate jurors, fifty-three of who are Republicans and before senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, and senate president pro tem, Chuck Grassley, and presiding Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts. Well, one might guess Hunter Biden, or, maybe Joe Biden himself. Who knows, we might see Christopher Steele or Paul Manafort, or perhaps Justice Department official, Bruce Ohr, whose wife worked for Fusion GPS, the operations research firm whose job it was to dig up dirt on Trump.

Congressmen Adam Schiff and Jerry Nadler, who chair the House Intelligence and Judiciary committees, and were (and are) outspoken and antagonistic critics of President Trump long before they presided over his impeachment inquiry did the case against the President no good. To many, they came across more as inquisitors than as judicious finders of fact. We suspect Congressman’s Schiff’s exaggerated, damning and ill-advised parody of President Trump’s clumsy and rather sleazy telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Zelensky will be entered into the Senate trial record, probably during prime time. No doubt, much will also be made of Chairman Nadler’s decision to postpone the House Judiciary Committee’s vote on impeachment until a bigger television audience could see it the following day. That these experienced trial lawyers didn’t have the foresight to envision how their antics might come back to haunt them during a Republican-controlled trial in the Senate boggles the mind.

So, in addition to a strong economy, apparent progress on a trade deal with China, a new trade agreement with Mexico, the American electorate is about to be treated to one of the greatest tv-reality shows in history, largely orchestrated by one of the greatest reality-tv performers in history—all brought to you compliments of the democratically-controlled House of Representatives.

Step right up folks, you’re about to see the saddest, greatest show on earth.

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10 responses to “Election: Trump’s to Lose”

  1. robin says:

    great analysis thanks and so true

  2. susan duman says:

    I can’t find an argument to anything you say.

  3. ELIEZAR BENJAMEIN Aka Leonard Sherman says:

    I have a friend who saw that are people and universities and colleges in America that are fostering and allowing hatred against my people, my children and a friend of America in the Middle East. and he did the right thing he signed into law that there will be consiquinses if these institutes of higher learning break the law. If thre had been a friend like my friend almost ninty years ago then the Holocaust may not have occurred

  4. James Fisher says:

    Great analysis, Hal. I hope, for the sake of the country, that the Republicans decide to make short shrift of the Senate impeachment hearings and allow congress to get back to its job of legislating.

    On the other hand, I don’t think it will necessarily be a sad day for America if the democrat leadership that promoted this hoax of an impeachment are ultimately exposed as the charlatans they are.

  5. Mike says:

    Sage analysis

    That said, I open the Senate has (to quote our former Governor Rod Blegoyovich) the testicular fortitude to drag it out and force Sciff to disclose the relationship between the whistleblower and his staff, the use of second hand information to open an impeachment process, the real impact of Hunter Biden’s role on the Board of an oil company in a foreign country and the sham hearing conducted by Nadler.

    Should be great theatre and if it helps expose the damage caused by Schiff and Nadler and Pelosi, then all the better.

  6. Perry says:

    Excellent analysis again. Outside of a Bloomberg candidacy
    the Democrats do not stand a chance to win, unless of course
    Trump again go’s off on his Twitter account with absurdities.

    Trump was my 4th choice in 2016 but in 2020 he will be my
    first choice for POTUS.

  7. Elliot solomon says:

    80% of people in our country want term limits, I believe much of what we are experiencing today in our political world wound not have occurred if they were in place
    Hal, once again great essay

  8. Michael Gong says:

    Yes, my dear friend, I’m afraid you’ve hit it on the button again. History proves that republics are fragile entities. All we need do is to look back at Rome and, of course, France. I hope for the best for the sake of our children and grandchildren, but I feel compelled to remind them that Canada is not that far away and they need not even learn a new language. Our parents and grandparents became ex-pats. Not so long ago we thought we occupied a special status in the universe, that God loved us for some mysterious reason. Modern science has dashed that myth. Then we thought that as Americans we were somehow special, different and better than all previous societies. Tocqueville suggested as much. I always thought he was uncannily right about everything. Maybe not.

  9. Marc Slavin says:

    Hal, You are dead! The Democrats have handed the 2020 Presidency over to Trump. The icing on the cake is to see Pelosi out and the congress taken over by the Republicans. Her legacy will be losing the house twice under her auspice. I still say, “give a lawyer enough rope and he will hang himself every time”.
    To all of your readers – look at our country and all of the big businesses, they are controlled by business men NOT lawyers. This is the root of our problems in the government. When you can limit the lawyers you will see things happen in a positive direction.

  10. sheila says:

    To Republicans who are looking for an alternative: This op-ed appeared in this morning’s New York Times. A group of conservative Republicans have started something called The Lincoln Project. It is worth reading about:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/17/opinion/lincoln-project.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

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